Nord Stream-2: who will finally win, Russia or Europe? A view on the project’s strategic implications.

Few weeks ago, a new round of fight against construction of Nord-Stream 2 pipeline intensified, as the US State Department announced potential sanctions for the European supporters and participants of the project. Even operators of a small German port of Murkan, where some supplies for the project had been stored, was threated to be economically destroyed.

There have been many attempts to stop this project, which will double direct gas transportation capacity from Russia to Germany, given its high political and economic importance for the wide range of stakeholders in European gas market — from alternative suppliers, transit countries, to customers, and financial institutions.

Among project supporters are some governments and companies in Western Europe, including Germany, France, Netherlands, Norway, which expect to receive significant economic benefits from improving of their position in the continental gas market, revenues from participation in project construction, creation of jobs.

There is also a group of fierce opponents — in particular, Ukraine and Poland, who are afraid to lose control over Russian gas exports to Europe and thus respective transit fees. They are supported by the US, who claim that the project is a “threat to European energy security as well as US national interests.” This resembles a situation back in 1980s, when US actively fought against Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline.